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nosmada: UDPATE YOUR PREDICTION: do we made a bowl game?
Leading up to the Marshall game, I mentioned that it was the Rubicon for the Hokies' bowl hopes. I reiterated in the aftermath that the loss in Huntington likely meant VT would be sitting home this December/January. At the time, that felt basically guaranteed.
Of course, something has changed in the time since: namely, the offense playing much more cohesive ball. The performance (and offensive structure) actually started to come together in the Rutgers game - abandoned too early in that contest to give the Hokies a chance to win - and the fact that VT didn't bother with continuing and improving upon the gains in the first quarter in New Jersey was one of the biggest frustrations coming out of West Virginia.
However, that game (and the later quarters against Rutgers) proved to be the blip, rather than the Hokies' burst of competence early in Piscataway. The three games since have seen the Hokies playing smarter and more interconnected ball, particularly on offense. It hasn't always borne results - see 10 offensive points against Florida State - but the big picture... well, exists. The Hokies are no longer running a group of plays, they're running an offense.
So that's a long preamble to say that the October-on version of Virginia Tech is good enough to play in a bowl game, and the question is simply whether 1-3 in September was enough to submarine the chances. VT needs three wins in the final five games, and while they're far from guaranteed to hit that bar, I'd put the chances above 50%. UVa looks like a must-win, and while Boston College is looking more formidable at this stage, Syracuse, NC State, and Louisville are looking less so. Two wins from those four opponents seems slightly better than a coin flip.
I'm not officially changing my bowl-free prediction just yet, but if I had to make a fresh choice as things stand today, I'd lean ever-so-slightly in that direction.
hokiejoe21: Are there any state of Va flip candidates?
The obvious choice here is Zahir Rainer, the Minnesota safety commit who never stopped hearing from the Hokies, even when he picked the Gophs. VT's need for another pure safety is certainly diminished at this stage, but Rainer may well continue listening if they push hard. The fact that Minnesota seems poised to qualify for bowl eligibility (Michigan State, Illinois, and Purdue in the next three weeks) much sooner than the Hokies throws one potential recruiting pitch - immediate team success - for a bit of a loop.
Rolling through the top of the state rankings, I don't think there's much chance to catch the ear of linebacker Kristopher Jones (Georgia), Peyton Lewis (Tennessee), or Fletcher Westphal (Florida, though at this stage the Hokies wouldn't necessarily be interested, either)... and from that point downward most of the guys the staff missed on are those that they passed on - or didn't even offer - the first time around.
So: linebacker Chris Cole (Georgia), defensive end Bodie Kahoun (Notre Dame), and wide receiver Mekhai White (Maryland) are your most realistic options both in terms of Hokie pursuit and potentially mutual interest. Cole is a local kid who needs to see the Orange and Maroon find some serious success - he was very into VT, but wanted a program on the national stage, one of which it is not at this point. The best hope would be that he sees a crowded linebacker depth chart in Athens and opts to stay home. Kahoun is another local kid from Roanoke Patrick Henry, and at this point, his desire to return to Indiana (where he lived as a youngster) probably outweighs any current geography. White picked Maryland in part because the Hokies got their two wideouts in the 2024 class - Keylen Adams and White's own teammate Chanz Wiggins - but if the staff evaluates new need at the position come the end of the season, a push could see him return any interest.
In the big picture, those are likely more "hopeful" than "likely," and if VT were to flip a player, it would probably be one who they hadn't offered when he committed elsewhere - or someone who doesn't play in the Commonwealth.
nosmada: How did the run defense get so much better in one week
Asked between the Florida State (7.83 yards per carry) and the Wake Forest (1.13 yards per carry) games, the answer is likely pretty simple: it didn't, really.
The Hokies played a much worse team with a much worse offensive line. Perhaps as importantly, they earned game states that are conducive to playing good run defense from a statistical perspective: VT got an early lead, and never let Wake get back to level standing. With the Deacs playing catch-up the whole game, they weren't running the ball very much. What they were doing was trying to throw with terrible pass protection and pocket awareness from their quarterbacks. Take out sacks, and in terms of just running, Wake got 3.46 yards per carry. That's still not a great output, but is much more a simple "here is the difference in quality between Florida State and Wake Forest" than anything else.
With that said, there are some building blocks in place. First off, the final five opponents have much more in common in terms of quality (and particularly offensive line quality) with Wake Forest than they do with Florida State. Only Boston College(!) is in the top 30 nationally in yards/rush. All except, again, BC are outside the top 50 in terms of preventing opposition sacks.
If the Hokies' offense can keep up its resurgence and force opponents into playing catch-up, the defense can take advantage by not having to face running downs in advantageous positions.
DennisBane: It appears the CBP is a better recruiter than Fuente, but is learning on the job as far as coaching skills (which are improving). I am all for giving CBP time to get it worked out with his recruits (within reason - 5 years), but the fan base is all over the place. What can VT do (the obvious answer is WIN) to improve the perception of showing confidence in the coaching staff, without making a long term mistake (such as a long extension without improvement). With the way colleges pursue kids, negative recruiting happens all the time, and kids look at this stuff more than I believe we think they do.
I don't think there's much to worry about at this point, and you're right that the simple answer is to go out and win football games. You're also right that Pry was a bad game coach when he started here, and while he's made major strides, is still not a finished product in that regard.
He's going to get at least three years though, even if there are significant growing pains. The Fuente administration left the roster in a terrible state, and while Pry's group deserves some grief for not turning it over faster (particularly on offensive line, where the need was obvious and they hit the portal with less success than at any other position), they also get some grace in terms of taking the time to turn it around.
Simply put, you don't hire Brent Pry to win football games now ("now" being the 2022 season), you hire him to build a program. He's growing into the "win now" characteristics, and the program-building stuff has been obvious from Day One. The positive feedback from major donors, high school coaches, and other stakeholders has been overwhelmingly positive - especially in comparison to Fuente, who was not well-liked from a simple personality perspective - and that's what this program needed.
Unless and until a bowl game in 2023 is off the table (and see above - I don't think that's happening), there doesn't need to be anything proactive from the athletic administration to show confidence in Pry, because there's no realistic chance that he's gone any time soon. If an opposing coach tries to imply otherwise for a negative recruiting pitch, kids are going to be smart enough to see through it.
rawest00: After 7 games into the season I would be interested in your perspective for the balance of the season. Not looking at wins and losses but areas where growth is critical to continued improvement. With a relatively young roster building momentum into next year for the coaches, players and recruiting is essential.
The easiest area to point to is unfortunately the one most outside the staff's control: health. Think if you told someone before the season that the Hokies would have the absences that they have through seven games, would anyone project a 3-4 mark to this point?
See: Ali Jennings would have one game and two snaps to this point, Jaylin Lane missing one entire game and most of two others, Braelin Moore missing one and much of another, the starting quarterback being out since the fourth quarter of the second game, starting safety Nasir Peoples missing four games while his backup (converted WR Jaylin Lane) has missed two more... there's a lot goin' on here.
It's mostly bad luck, rather than anything in the Hokies' control. Lane, Moore, Peoples, and Jones shouldn't be long-term at this stage, and while Wells and Jennings are still on the dreaded "week-to-week" distinction, neither of them has come remotely close to being on the sunny side of availability, either.
What you don't see there is a ton of defensive front-seven absence, and the other area for improvement is stopping the run. That mostly falls on the linebackers, given that the defensive line has been pretty good at getting to the right spots (albeit with too many missed tackles) and the LBs have struggled to hit their run fits. Given the experience at that unit, it's something that may well improve by leaps and bounds over a bye week. They won't suddenly be among the best in the ACC, but if the 'backers can get to above-average (or heck, even just average), glimmers of LPD status can start to show through and really make the future look bright.
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