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BigHokieFan: We have a lot of guys on watchlists this year. Of those who has the best chance at actually getting an award.?
Other than the watchlist folks, who else could have a breakout year?
The first question was a heck of a lot easier at the beginning of the week: I would have had a hard time seeing defensive back Caleb Farley make it through a healthy season without earning some sort of All-America distinction. He would also have ended up a favorite for the Jim Thorpe Award (particularly if the VT defense had a bounceback year after a couple rocky seasons to close out the Bud Foster era).
In his stead, I'll probably roll with a surprising choice: offensive lineman Christian Darrisaw to win the Outland Trophy. He's been a bright spot on some weaker offensive lines the past couple years - and that this includes being a true-freshman starter with no upperclassmen to speak of begins to explain why those lines were so bad - and if he can remain its best player as the front five makes major improvements, he'll get more national attention. I do think that improvement up front is all-but guaranteed as finally the rough transition from the weak recruiting of the late-stage Beamer era to the unavoidable youth of the last couple years is completed.
As for the second part of the question, let's lay the groundwork: the watchlist folks we're ruling out are kicking specialists Oscar Bradburn and Brian Powell on the Guy and Groza lists, respectively, Darrisaw up for the Outland Trophy, the versatile Tayvion Robinson a nominee for the Hornung Award, quarterback Hendon Hooker on the Maxwell list, cornerback Jermaine Waller (no longer joined by Farley) as a possibility for the Thorpe, and Rayshard Ashby a candidate for the Butkus Award.
It depends on how you define "breakout year," of course. If we're talking somebody from outside that pool most likely to join the mid-season watchlists or even win such an award, I think the easy answer would be wide receiver Tre Turner becoming a serious candidate for the Biletnikoff Award. He's been over 500 yards each of his first two years in Blacksburg, and now he's ascended to top-option status.
However, doesn't that sound like a guy who's realistically already had his breakout, back in his true freshman season? Let's look for someone a little less established. And that person is offensive lineman Brock Hoffman. More notable to date for his eligibility fight against the NCAA than what he's done on the field (primarily because what he's done on the field happened in obscurity at Coastal Carolina), he's expected to be one of VT's best offensive linemen - perhaps helping Darrisaw compete for that Outland? In addition, the offensive center position has its own award - the Rimington Trophy - so it's a more specific competition with a smaller group vying for it.
cmmcclu: Besides Devon Hunter, who is an upperclassman who hasn’t gotten much playing time who is ready to take the leap this season?
There are some cheat answers here (grad-transfers Justus Reed and Khalil Herbert, for example), but we'll stick to guys who have been Hokies since Signing Day, without having made contributions in at least their first two years. I also want to rule out a guy like Darryle Simmons, whose lack of time has more to do with a lengthy injury recovery than any inability to learn schemes or make the transition from high school.
Fortunately for the Hokies, most other upperclassmen either have plenty of playing time (and having been forced into that as underclassmen explains past struggles both individually and for the team in the past two years - sensing a theme here?) or are new to the program.
For that reason, I'll have to bend the "significant injury" rule just a bit and go with Drake DeIuliis. He got a tiny bit of action in 2017, but received a medical redshirt for the year (coming off a senior high school season that he missed most of, too), and his contributions the past two years have been limited. This prediction is more about opportunity - with Dalton Keene off to the NFL Draft, a second versatile tight end might need to get more playing time aside receiving-focused James Mitchell or blocking-focused Nick Gallo - than any individual reason to believe he's due for a breakout.
Other options, such as defensive linemen Jaylen Griffin or Zion DeBose, have played a lot, just not always particularly well, so while they don't fit the specific phrasing of the question, they could emerge as upperclassmen, as well. The bigger issue is that they're probably stuck behind returning players (and incoming Reed) on the depth chart, so the opportunities will be hard to find - but there for the taking when there is a sliver of an opening.
Shadyhill: There has not been a thousand yard rusher at VT in many years. Out of the many RBs on the team which players if any have a good chance to break a thousand yards?
You're right: one has to go back to 2015 - the final year of the Frank Beamer era - to find a 1,000-yard rusher in Travon McMillian. He didn't come close either of the subsequent two years, and nor did his successors, a combination of Steven Peoples, Deshawn McClease, and a more heavily-rotated cast behind them.
In all honesty, I don't know that there's a 1,000-yard rusher this year, either. That's not necessarily because VT lacks talent, but rather because of some philosophical differences in ideology from this staff (especially as it comes to situational use and the preferred style of offense), and longer-term trends in college football (as it relates to more rotation to keep players fresh not just for the current season, but for the NFL). If there are a bunch of 600-yard rushers - including the quarterback - I don't think this staff will sweat not having a 1,000-yard guy.
That said, with the improvement I expect from the offensive line, it only takes a couple big games for one guy in a "600 yards" type of season to break out and blossom into a thousand-yard rusher. From that perspective, a guy with a bit of top-end speed and a more typical style as a down-to-down grinder probably makes the most sense.
For that reason, I think Jalen Holston (off an injury redshirt) and Kansas transfer Khalil Herbert are the most likely suspects here. Holston is a bruiser, but has shown long speed in the past. Herbert isn't as physical a runner, but has shown the ability to make consistent plays running through the middle, and has even more of a top gear than Holston to take runs not just for the nice "40-yard breakaway" big gain, but all the way to the house.
A guy like KeShawn King (who I've been very high on back to his high school days), if he can stay healthy and be a little more tough at the line of scrimmage with some added size, could be a nice dark horse to emerge as the full-time start and have that potential, as well.
In the big picture, though, if you don't think the weak offensive lines 2017-19 were the main reason for a lack of a dominant rusher in those years, you probably shouldn't look for one this year., Even if you think those lines were the main reason, it might not be the expectation anyway.
paul r: I am not opposed to Notre Dame playing a full ACC schedule, however, being eligible for a conference championship is not acceptable. Come and join 100% or just enjoy the special status given, am I alone in this position?
Shadyhill: Will ND finally join the ACC as a full member?
On the contrary, Paul, I think it's the opinion among the majority of ACC fans, aside from those who are Notre Dame partisans (and sorry, Domers, you're definitely just under the "ACC fans" umbrella now).
Notre Dame has been getting more than it gives to the ACC for some time now. The conference allows it, because commissioner John Swofford has seen more value in getting five guaranteed games against the Irish for his league's teams each year as a good method for exposure. From a monetary perspective, it's a negative for the league: the Irish get to keep the full TV revenue from their home games on NBC, while sharing the TV revenue from the games at ACC programs with the league. Unlike other teams in the conference, no other gameday revenue is shared with the ACC (for example, Virginia Tech's home game against Liberty or a neutral-site game against West Virginia sees the broadcast rights fall under the ACC's agreement).
The schedule stability it provides for Notre Dame far exceeds the exposure value it provides for the ACC - and we've already discussed how the money works out. Hopefully, the league takes this opportunity to either force the Irish into the league for good, or cut ties completely. More likely, Swofford uses it as yet another opportunity for a Notre Dame athletic director to walk away from the negotiating table laughing about what a raw deal he talked the league into accepting.
es79hokie: What is your latest 'estimate' as to the status of the 2020 season being played in the fall? I assume the spring of 2021 is Plan B if the fall season is postponed.
LakeErieHokie: Recently I was talking to a former student that coaches at a D-3 school. Their conference cancelled the season. He said all the senior are basically going to not enroll for the fall semester. Which sort of redshirts themselves. Do you see our guys doing that if the ACC cans the season?
These are related (if not directly, in spirit), so I'll tackle them together. The first was asked before the ACC's plans were announced for the 10+1 format this season, so that's part of the answer. However, there's still plenty of unknown as it relates to pandemic-dependent items, and while I'm hopeful that the season goes according to (new) plan, I'm not optimistic that we'll see all 11 games of that plan, if we see any football at all.
There are still too many moving parts to know for sure. If we get a seven- or eight-game season under a version of the current plan, I'll be... satisfied isn't the right word, but it'll be enough football that I won't feel there wasn't a season at all, and it'll be a solid proxy for what everyone's hoping for. Even if we do get more than that (the full 11 games and a normal Conference Championship/Bowl slate), this season will always have an asterisk anyway.
A move to Spring honestly doesn't strike me as a possibility anymore. It seems like we're either getting a truncated Fall season or a total cancellation of the football season. Perhaps the Power-5 programs come back and push for something after the New Year if we do get dangerously close to the latter. Hopefully, it doesn't come to that.
As for if there's no season at all, the NCAA will have to make broad waiver-based decisions that affect basically every Division I athlete, and then conferences and schools will have to make their own decisions about how to handle that (could fifth-year senior Oscar Bradburn return in 2021 if he wanted to? how about a guy like Tyrell Smith, who's never contributed? Virginia Tech shouldn't be forced to make a blanket decision about continuing to pay for those players' scholarships in ways that they didn't plan for - unless the NCAA steps in and covers those costs with some sort of mandate).
As for withdrawing from school, etc.: that's not applicable to Division I (except in certain cases, like the Ivy League), since grad students are eligible to participate. Players wouldn't need to fudge around with their academic status in order to retain athletic eligibility.
Pghokie10: If FU has another sub par (around 500) season with top 5 most offensive and defensive production and starters coming back will he be fired or won’t he bc we owe him to much on ridiculous contract?
if FU has class acc championship season goes to orange bowl maybe wins orange bowl and another school (that’s attractive) come after him will he leave?
Ah, our resident "get this guy outta here" board member... looks for mechanisms through which to get rid of Justin Fuente.
First off, I think the premise of the initial question is pretty unlikely: Justin Fuente's teams at Virginia Tech have only approached a .500 record once, and this is expected to be (far and away, pending the ability of Justin Hamilton to just maintain - to say nothing of improve upon - Bud Foster's last couple defenses) his best team since arriving at Virginia Tech. The only .500 season featured a walk-on quarterback who simply wasn't up to the task of being a Power-5 starter, thrust into it because of a season-ending injury to the starter.
A lot had to go wrong for Fuente to have a "late-stage Beamer" type of season. If it were to happen in 2020, that would be expectation-shattering in a major way. Certainly things would be re-evaluated at that point, but the premise itself is grounded so far from the reality of the situation that it's not worth tackling unless and until it looks realistic. Even then, pandemic-related caveats would probably eliminate the possibility of a firing for anything on-field.
If Baylor couldn't pull Fuente away from Virginia Tech last year (when the bloom on his rose wasn't particularly strong after a slump to finish the season), I doubt anyone other than a serious big boy program of college football can. A program in his home region, with massive amounts of money to throw around, and he stayed at Virginia Tech.
You'd have to look for a perennial top-25 program (which, if VT were to go to a New Years Six Bowl, they'd probably be considered one again at the drop of a hat anyway) with a heck of a lot more money to throw around than Virginia Tech (OK, this is the majority of perennial top-25 programs anyway), and probably one closer to Texas/Oklahoma.
The only one that seems like a possibility in multiple of those categories that could have a coaching opening would be Oklahoma State (especially since the reasons they'd be without a coach wouldn't be because the team failed, but rather because the players largely want him out at this point). Even TCU, where Fuente got his serious coaching start, probably wouldn't be able to outbid the Hokies.
At that point, if he were to leave, it would be more about a homecoming of sorts (and getting away from the impossible "be Frank Beamer" standard that even Beamer didn't meet for the final decade of his coaching career). More likely, I think he's at Virginia Tech for the longer-term - he has to rebuild the resume to be a candidate for the Alabama/Oklahoma type jobs, and those are the ones worth leaving Blacksburg for.
Shadyhill: Which players from the most recent class have the best chance to play this season?
Naturally, when asked this question, you look to the top of the star ratings, because those are the players you'd generally expect to be the instant-impact guys.
Of course, VT didn't bring home a ton of top-end talent (defensive end Alec Bryant the only four-star, fellow Texan DE Robert Wooten the only "high-three"). The position those guys play is also one at which 1) the Hokies return every contributor and add a graduate transfer who is expected to start, and 2) the longer-term trend at Virginia Tech is for a redshirt in the first year on campus.
So, let's go hunting down the rest of the recruiting class.
I think wide receivers Tyree Saunders and Dallan Wright have a good chance to contribute both because of the diminished depth at receiver with the number of off-season departures, and because they bring something to the table that not a lot of others do (and for that latter reason, getting them ready to be even bigger contributors going forward means giving them some reps as true freshmen). Saunders has that explosiveness-and-well-rounded game that Tre Turner also does, and could play the role that Turner has the past couple years before ascending to the presumptive No. 1 spot. Wright has the athletic talents of a slot receiver, plus the size to potential be an outside guy down the road as he gets physically stronger.
There's an element of the dynamic between 2014 signees Isaiah Ford and Cam Phillips, who followed those respective pathways while both being hyper-productive and eventually moving to the NFL. Getting those skillsets on the field in year one is a distinct possibility.
BigHokieFan: With the addition of Fuller and JGW as player personnel, what is the expectations for them? Will this help with recruiting the state?
Former Hokie receiver Corey Fuller and linebacker Jeron Gouveia-Winslow have been added to the coaching staff as player personnel assistants - a role that is typically focused on recruiting, with an eye to progressing toward full-time coaching positions in the future.
It remains to be seen exactly what those responsibilities will be going forward, especially with even the 2020 season totally unique among years in anyone's memory. For the time being, they're serving as initial points of contact with some high school prospects, and building relationships with the Virginia Tech brand and coaching staff before the primary recruiters (members of the coaching staff proper) get more involved with the priority players. Fuller in particular has a good reputation throughout the DMV and Baltimore regions, and early indications have been positive from prospects and high school coaches in those areas. JGW has been a little more low-profile to date.
The bigger question for me is if this takes some of the player-contact responsibility off the plate of others in the recruiting department and gives those higher-ups a chance to be more focused on planning-implementing overarching organization of the recruiting effort. That has been the far bigger problem with the recruiting cycle (including as it relates to in-state pursuits) than any inability to build positive connections with individual prospects.
cmmcclu: With the VHSL announcing no fall high school football how much of an impact will that have on recruiting?
Like a lot of other pandemic-related items we've seen in the past half-year (or, as it's felt, an entire decade unfolding since March), it's near-impossible to predict the specifics of how this will unfold going forward.
There are a few things we do know: it will be tougher for late-developing rising senior prospects (Class of 2021) to emerge and make a name for themselves - and earn big offers - without a season. Guys like Wilfried Pene and Dallan Wright (albeit a pair not from Virginia, but the concept remains the same) would not have been on the Hokies' radar without solid senior-year film.
Similarly, it will probably slow down the evaluation process for the Classes of 2022-2024, because the limited bodies of work for staffs to evaluate makes it tough to take that plunge on a guy (as meaningful as "take the plunge" means when the vast majority of "offers" don't mean a whole lot until you get much deeper into the process, anyway).
There will be adaptations. We've already seen a number of camps, combines, and 7-on-7 events begin to step up to give some sort of season-replacing format to players in the state. More of that is likely to come, and the details of those already announced will be hammered out further. Of course, they can't replace actual, on-field football. But they're something.
I wouldn't have expected the current interminable emergency Dead Period to accelerate the timelines of as many players as it has nationally. That's true from a Virginia Tech perspective, too: at least 10 of the Hokies 17 current commitments have never taken a true recruiting visit to Blacksburg (though some have done the self-guided tour routine that's become a little more commonplace in the past few months). Now that we know it has, though, I would bet that players from the state who already have offers will try to jump on them before giving colleges a chance to say "we want to see more from you before you commit and you don't have the opportunity to show it."
That will affect lower- and middle-tier prospects rather than the elite-of-the-elite, but the trickle-up (and some trickle-down) effects are near-impossible to predict.
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