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January 18, 2012
2011 Predictions Review
Prior to the season, I wrote a "Mega Season Preview" in which I made a bunch of fearless and, in hindsight, ridiculous predictions on the upcoming season. Today, let's review those predictions and see if I nailed any.
Logan Thomas Stats
Prediction: 2300 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
Actual Stats: 3013 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
Review: I thought the Hokies would be a lot more conservative in the passing game and have Thomas be more of a game manager this season, hence the lower passing yards prediction. Instead, he aired it out vertically all year leading to over 3000 passing yards. At least I nailed the 10 interceptions.
David Wilson Stats
Prediction: 1500 rushing yards, 20 touchdowns
Actual Stats: 1709 rushing yards, 9 touchdowns
Review: If Wilson had achieved the stats I predicted, he would have been in New York for the Heisman ceremony. Trent Richardson was there and he rushed for 1679 yards and 21 touchdowns this year. Wilson blew past my rushing yards prediction on his way to setting the single season mark at 1709, but fell well short of expectations as far as a touchdown runs. He wasn't very good in the redzone when the field was far more compressed and that combined with Logan Thomas' ability in short yardage situations made it difficult for him to be a big-time scorer.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 34 - Appalachian State 14
Actual Score: Virginia Tech 66 - Appalachian State 13
Review: My prediction for Appalachian State's offensive output was in the same neighborhood as the actual result, but I didn't expect Tech's offense to be clicking as it was on opening day.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 33 - East Carolina 23
Actual Score: Virginia Tech 17 - East Carolina 10
Review: I wrote in the original article to "expect a ton of fireworks in this game." That was the furthest thing from the truth, as both defenses dominated this game.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 42 - Arkansas State 14
Actual Score: Virginia Tech 26 - Arkansas State 7
Review: When the schedule was announced, people went right past the game against the Red Wolves the third weekend of the season. I called it the "snoozer of the year." Arkansas State actually put together a terrific season, finishing the regular season 10-2 and earning their head coach, Hugh Freeze, a job at Ole Miss.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 31 - Marshall 10
Actual Score: Virginia Tech 30 - Marshall 10
Review: This is by far the closest I got this season, coming within one point of nailing the actual score. Tech coasted in this game on their way to an easy victory in Huntington.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 24 - Clemson 16
Actual Score: Virginia Tech 3 - Clemson 23
Review: No one expected the Tigers to be as good as they were this year and but for a few weeks down the stretch and one night in Miami, they were a top five team in the country. They came into Blacksburg rolling off of emotional wins over Auburn and Florida State and kept it going in a premier night game in Lane Stadium.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 17 - Miami 0
Actual Score: Virginia Tech 38 - Miami 35
Review: As close as Marshall was, this was the biggest miss of the year. I expected the 'Canes to be absolutely reeling as a program as the original article was written in the immediate aftermath of the scandal breaking. Instead, the two teams played one of the best games of the year and Logan Thomas provided one of the best moments ever in Lane Stadium history.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 27 - Wake Forest 10
Actual Score: Virginia Tech 38 - Wake Forest 17
Review: I got the general gist of this one. The Hokies should dominate this game every single time the teams play each other and they did again this year, despite falling behind 10-0 early.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 20 - Boston College 27
Actual Score: Virginia Tech 30 - Boston College 14
Review: After buying into the Kevin Rogers preseason hype and Boston College QB Chase Rettig's expected developed, I picked the Eagles to pull off the upset. However, Rogers didn't make an impact, Rettig struggled, and the ACC's best tailback entering the year, Montel Harris, went down with a season ending injury. The Eagles' terrible offense made this one a laugher.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 30 - Duke 13
Actual Score: Virginia Tech 14 - Duke 10
Review: This was easily the scare of the season, as the Hokies struggled all afternoon long in Durham, beating the Blue Devils on two Josh Oglesby touchdown runs and a stout effort from Bud Foster's defense. If it weren't for Bud Foster's defense, the Hokies would have suffered a devastating loss.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 16 - Georgia Tech 13
Actual Score: Virginia Tech 37 - Georgia Tech 26
Review: After originally pegging this for a defensive slugfest with few possessions, this one turned out to be a shootout of sorts, with the Hokies riding the backs of Logan Thomas and David Wilson to a huge win on the road. For the seventh straight season, the winner of this game represented the Coastal Division in the ACC Championship.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 24 - North Carolina 7
Actual Score: Virginia Tech 24 - North Carolina 21
Review: This one was looking like it was going to be dead on until the fourth quarter, when the Virginia Tech defense uncharacteristically quit and nearly allowed the Tar Heels to steal another win on Thursday night in Lane Stadium. Up 24-7 with 9:49 left, the Hokies allowed scoring drives of 2:43 and 1:20 to allow the lead to be cut to the final score of 24-21.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 17 - Virginia 14
Actual Score: Virginia Tech 38 - Virginia 0
Review: There were some who didn't agree with my prediction that the 'Hoos would be a dark horse this year, but that's basically what drove this prediction. A surging Virginia team with a decent offense and a good defense behind a strong home crowd would keep this one interesting. In reality, a surging Virginia team with a decent offense and a good defense behind a strong home crowd couldn't keep it interesting and the Hokies once again asserted their dominance in the rivalry.
ACC Order of Finish
1. Virginia Tech
2. Georgia Tech
5. North Carolina
1. Virginia Tech
3. Georgia Tech
4. North Carolina
1. Florida State
3. Boston College
5. NC State
6. Wake Forest
2. Florida State
3. Wake Forest
4. NC State
5. Boston College
All-ACC Team Prediction
QB - Danny O'Brien, Maryland
RB - Andre Ellington, Clemson
RB - Montel Harris, Boston College
WR - Conner Vernon, Duke
WR - Jarrett Boykin, Virginia Tech
TE - George Bryan, NC State
OL - Andrew Datko, Florida State
OL - Brandon Washington, Miami
OL - James Hurst, North Carolina
OL - Dalton Freeman, Clemson
OL - Oday Aboushi, Virginia
DE - Quinton Coples, North Carolina
DE - Brandon Jenkins, Florida State
DT - Brandon Thompson, Clemson
DT - Tydreke Powell, North Carolina
LB - Luke Kuechly, Boston College
LB - Bruce Taylor, Virginia Tech
LB - Kenny Tate, Maryland
CB - Jayron Hosley, Virginia Tech
CB - Xavier Rhoads, Florida State
S - Eddie Whitley, Virginia Tech
S - Nick Moody, Florida State
All-ACC Team Actual
QB-Tajh Boyd, Clemson
RB-David Wilson, Virginia Tech
RB-Giovani Bernard, North Carolina
WR-Sammy Watkins, Clemson
WR-Chris Givens, Wake Forest
OT-Blake DeChristopher, Virginia Tech
OT-Zebrie Sanders, Florida State
OG-Austin Pasztor, Virginia
OG-Omoregie Uzzi, Georgia Tech
C-Dalton Freeman, Clemson
TE-Dwayne Allen, Clemson
K-Dustin Hopkins, Florida State
Spec.- T.J. Graham, NC State
DE-Andre Branch, Clemson
DE-Quinton Coples, North Carolina
DT-Joe Vellano, Maryland
DT-Matt Conrath, Virginia
LB-Luke Kuechly, Boston College
LB-Sean Spence, Miami
LB-Zach Brown, North Carolina
CB-David Amerson, NC State
CB-Chase Minnifield, Virginia
S-Matt Daniels, Duke
S-Josh Bush, Wake Forest
P-Shawn Powell, Florida State
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